The business tendency survey for the 4th quarter of 2022 shows that overall industrial production was unchanged compared to the previous quarter. The producers of Covers industries such as machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation. Often referred to as the engineering industry. are experiencing an increase in production while the producers of Covers industries such as wood and wood products, paper and paper products, basic chemicals and basic metals. Often referred to as traditional export industries. report a decline. Producers of Covers industries such as food products and beverages, printing and reproduction, pharmaceuticals and furniture. report about the same production level as in the 3rd quarter. There are still a high proportion of the industrial leaders who report that lack of access to skilled labor, raw materials and other input factors have limited production volume in the 3rd quarter (see figure 6), but the share has gradually become lower in recent quarters. Lack of raw materials and input factors are still linked to logistics challenges in the world market, which have been reinforced by corona shutdowns in China, the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis in Europe.
Industrial leaders report growth in total industrial employment in the 4th quarter 2022. There is employment growth within the producer types capital goods and intermediate goods, while producers of consumer goods report unchanged employment.
Reduction in new orders
Industrial leaders report a decline in new orders from both the export and home markets in the 4th quarter. The decline is strongest for the producers of intermediate goods. There are also reports of a decline from the domestic market for the producers of consumer goods, while they report an increase in new orders from the export market. Producers of capital goods report unchanged levels of new orders from the domestic market and an increase in new orders from the export market.
Reduced demand contributes to no change in the total stock of orders in manufacturing in the 4th quarter. For producers of intermediate goods, a clear decrease in total stock of orders is reported, while producers of consumer goods report a moderate decrease. Producers of capital goods, on the other hand, report a clear increase in total stock of orders in the 4th quarter.
Industrial managers are reporting significant growth in the prices, both in domestic and export market for overall manufacturing in the 4th quarter. Price growth is reported for all types of goods in both markets. For producers of consumer goods, the growth in prices is particularly strong. The levels of the diffusion indexes for export and domestic prices are marginally lower than in the previous quarter, but they are still among the highest measured since this survey began in 1990.
A large proportion of industrial managers report continued growth in The development in the prices that the company pays for the goods and services that are included in the production (product input), and on the prices of production equipment and facilities used in the production process. in the 4th quarter. The level of the diffusion index for cost prices is marginally lower than in the previous quarter, but it is still among the highest measured since this indicator began to be measured in the fourth quarter of 2011. It is producers of consumer goods who have the highest growth in cost prices. Overall, stronger growth in cost prices than in product prices was reported. This substantiates that there are reports of declining The development in the profitability of the company's sales of goods or services. Profitability means the change in the difference between current operating expenses and current operating revenues. in manufacturing, as a whole, in the 3rd quarter.
Pessimistic assessment of the 1st quarter of 2023
The general outlook for the 1st quarter of 2023 is negative. Only producers of capital goods show optimism. The producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods have a negative view of the coming quarter.
The industrial leaders expect a decrease in total production volume and a moderate increase in average employment in the 1st quarter of 2023 compared to the 4th quarter of 2022. Lower new orders from both the home and export markets and a decrease in the total stock of orders are expected. It is the producers of intermediate goods who report the weakest future prospects and they expect a decrease in production volume and new orders from both the home and export markets in the 1st quarter. Producers of consumer goods also expect a decrease in production and new orders from both markets, but the decrease is expected to be more moderate. The producers of capital goods show on the other hand an increase in all these indicators. In addition, clear growth in employment is expected by the producers of capital goods. The far more positive development and prospects for manufacturers of investment goods may be related to the fact that in the 4th quarter a number of new field developments were decided on the NCS, which has triggered and will trigger a great many contracts for the Norwegian supplier industry. Producers of all types of goods also expect that the cost prices will increase further in the 4th quarter.
Industry leaders report that investment plans are adjusted downwards for manufacturing. In the survey of 3rd quarter of 2021, a new statistics table (see box at the bottom of the article) was introduced. This table shows the development in which factors the managers state as limiting the investments. In this quarter, there is a higher proportion of industrial leaders who state that the expected development in demand limits investments. The proportion of industrial leaders who believe that the The prices of the investment goods (production equipment and facilities used in the production process) that the company purchases are so high that it limits the implementation of planned investments. are a limiting factor on investment is still high and at the same level as in the previous quarter.
The industrial confidence indicator suggests a decline in the 1st quarter of 2023
This is the average of the responses (balances) to the questions on expected volume of production, total stock of orders and inventories of own products for sale (the latter with an inverted sign). See Definitions in ‘About the statistics’ for further details. in the 4th quarter of 2022 was minus 3.9 ([Figures that are adjusted for calendar effects and seasonal variation. Such adjustment gives a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the time series and makes it easier to compare the results of subsequent quarters.]) which is an increase from minus 4.4 from the previous quarter. The indicator is now below the historical average of 3.1 and thus indicates a decrease in the production in the 1st quarter of 2023.
The industrial confidence indicator indicates a strong decline for both the producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods, while it shows growth for the producers of investment goods.
Values above zero indicate that total output will grow in the forthcoming quarter, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Denmark.
Demand and strong competition limit production
This quarter, there are a high proportion of industry leaders who highlight that weak demand and strong competition are factors that contributed to limiting production in the 4th quarter of 2022. There is also still a high proportion of industry managers who point out that a lack of qualified labor and access to "raw materials and/or electricity" are factors that contributed to limiting production in the 4th quarter, but the proportions have been descending in the last quarters. The sum of percentages for those who have reported that lack of qualified labour and raw materials/electric power limits production, plus the percentage of establishments with capacity utilisation above 95 per cent.is still high but it has also fallen gradually in recent quarters.
The figure shows that the proportion of industrial managers, who point out that a lack of qualified labor and access to raw materials and/or electricity are factors that contribute to limiting production, peaked in the 1st quarter of 2022, and has since decreased somewhat. At the same time, the figure shows that the proportion of industry leaders who point out that weak demand and strong competition have limited production reached a bottom in the 1st quarter, and has since risen somewhat.
The average How much of the available production capacity is utilised. A high capacity utilisation means that it is difficult to produce more without investing, while a low capacity utilisation means having capacity that is not being used. for Norwegian manufacturing was calculated to 80.1 per cent at the end of the 4th quarter of 2022. This is marginally lower than at the end of the 3rd quarter, and it is now about at the same level as the historical average of 80.0 per cent. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat (EU).
Timelines
The survey data was collected in the period from 9 December 2022 to 17 January 2023.
As of this publication, new indicators are introduced in the statistics. The indicator «Cost prices» and «Profitability» for actual and expected changes in the next quarter are published in the table «08264: Business tendency survey. Tendencies» Cost prices measure the development in the prices that the company pays for the goods and services that are included in the production of the final item (raw material). As well as on the prices of the capital goods (production equipment and facilities used in the production process) that the company purchases or, in those cases where another part is responsible for the entire investment project, the price of the investment delivery. Profitability measures the development in the profitability of the company's sales of goods or services. Profitability means the change in the difference between current operating expenses and current operating revenues. In this case, it is not considered factors that affect the company's profits that are not directly linked to the company's main activity (eg. sales of electricity). In addition, a new statistics bank table is published which shows reasons that limit the company's investment activity: «12786: Business tendency survey. Limiting factors for investments». For "Limiting factors for investments", business leaders are asked to choose the most important reasons that limit new investments (several answers possible). If they have not planned investments, they can use the option «No special». The reasons that are measured are these: «Access to credit» if they plan to invest in new real capital, but have problems establishing enough financing. «Expected development in demand» if they expect lower demand and for that reason it is risky to invest in new capacity. The alternatives for investment costs are used if it is considered that «Prices for Capital Good» and /or «Financing cost» are so high that it limits the implementation of planned investments. «Governmental requirement» if they conclude that public requirements related to an investment (for example environmental requirements) are so high that planned investments are limited. «Access to governmental subsidy» if the planned investments are limited by rejection of an application for public grants or that the grants are too low. «Available production capacity» if at the end of the quarter they have spare production capacity and for that reason do not wish to carry out planned investments at the present time. Companies that have other limiting factors than those specified in the form, use the option «Other factors» where the business leaders can specify what these factors are.
